China PV Installations – Q1 2026
New additions: 40.99GW, YoY -31.3% (first major negative growth)
Cumulative: 1.24 billion kW, YoY +31.3%
March alone: 8.91GW, YoY -56%, sharp decline

2026 Full-Year Forecast (CPIA)
China new additions: 180–240GW (down sharply from 315GW in 2025)
Global new additions: 500–667GW, likely first negative growth in 20 years

Structural Shifts
Distributed share falls to ~40%; commercial & industrial slows, residential remains relatively resilient
“Sand-Gobi-Wasteland” large bases and PV-storage integration become main incremental drivers

II. Industry Chain Capacity & Prices (End of Q1 2026)

1) Capacity: Severe Overcapacity, Low Utilization
Polysilicon: 3.5 million tons/year, global demand only 1.2 million tons, utilization 35.5%
Wafers: 1,400–1,500GW global capacity, demand 550–600GW, supply-demand ratio >2:1
Cells/Modules: 1,100GW+, 2026 global installations only 550–600GW
Inventory: Industry average 46.3 days; PV glass >60 days

2) Prices: Full-Chain Cost Inversion, Leading Players Sustained Losses
Modules: Mainstream 0.60–0.67 yuan/W, below industry cash cost (~0.69 yuan/W)
Polysilicon: 35,000–38,000 yuan/ton, approaching or below some producers’ costs
182mm wafers: 2.0–2.1 yuan/piece, below breakeven for most firms
Leading Q1 2026 results:
Tongwei: Net loss 2.444 billion yuan
Longi: Net loss 1.920 billion yuan
TCL Zhonghuan: Net loss 1.647 billion yuan
10 consecutive quarters of losses; industry enters deep consolidation phase

III. Latest Technology Iterations (2026)

N-type fully dominant, TOPCon becomes mainstream
N-type cell share >50% (Q1 2026), projected >70% by year-end
TOPCon: Mass production efficiency 25.5%–26.5%, share >60%, lowest cost
HJT: Efficiency 26%–26.8%, cost down via copper plating & thinning; rising share in high-end distributed
BC (Back Contact): Efficiency 26.5%+, share rose from 12% to 28% in Q1, preferred for premium modules
Perovskite Tandem: Lab breakthroughs, pilot scaling accelerates
Lab efficiency: 33%–34% (tandem), small-area modules >28%
Multiple GW-scale pilot lines under construction; small-volume production expected 2027–2028

Cost-Reduction Pathways Now Standard
Wafers: 120μm thinning, 182/210mm large sizes >90% share
Silver reduction: Copper plating/silver-coated copper adopted, silver use down 30%–50%, costs down 10%–15%

IV. Core Trends (2026–2027)

1) Industry: From “Scale Involution” to “Capacity Consolidation + Value Restructuring”
2026 designated as governance year; policy + market drive inefficient capacity exit
CR10 concentration: 65% (2025) → 78% (Q1 2026), strong get stronger
Inflection point: Profit recovery window expected Q4 2026 – Q1 2027

2) Products: PV-Storage Integration from “Optional” to “Mandatory”
Large bases require 10%–20%/2h storage; commercial & industrial distributed storage share rising fast
Grid-forming storage, virtual power plants, AI O&M become differentiators

3) Markets: Domestic Slowdown, Overseas Become Growth Core
Europe, Middle East, Latin America, SE Asia high-growth; 2026 export share >50%
Overseas manufacturing accelerates: Leaders build module/cell capacity in SE Asia, Americas to avoid trade barriers

4) Competition: From Price Wars to Integrated Tech + Cost + Service
Patent disputes intensify (e.g., Aiko vs Maxeon); IP becomes core barrier
Vertical integration + global operations + PV-storage system capabilities determine long-term share

Source: PV Lianbo (Contact us for deletion if any infringement is involved)