After years of rapid growth, China's photovoltaic industry has ushered in an important turning point at the beginning of 2026. With intensive policy regulations, the first negative growth in installed capacity growth, bottoming and fluctuating prices in the industrial chain, and accelerated iteration of technical routes, these signals indicate that the photovoltaic industry is moving from "wild growth" to a new stage of "mature development".

I. First Negative Growth in Installed Capacity Growth: Growing Pains from "Quantity Expansion" to "Quality Improvement"
According to the latest data from the National Energy Administration, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 32.48GW in January and February 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 17.71%. This is the first negative growth in domestic newly installed capacity since photovoltaic grid parity.
Behind the slowdown are multiple overlapping factors:
Policy transition effect: New policies such as the distributed photovoltaic management measures and market-oriented reform of grid electricity prices have just been launched, leading to a wait-and-see attitude in the market and delayed implementation of some projects.
Relatively high module prices: Current module prices remain relatively high, reducing the yield of terminal projects and curbing installation demand.
Grid absorption pressure: Distributed photovoltaic access in some regions is close to saturation, and grid carrying capacity has become a hard constraint on installation growth.
The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that China's photovoltaic installed capacity will drop from 315.07GW in 2025 to 180GW-240GW in 2026. A research report by Sinolink Securities further points out that China's photovoltaic installed capacity is likely to see its first negative growth since grid parity in 2026.
But from another perspective, this is not necessarily a bad thing. As Qu Fang, an investment consultant at Wanlian Securities, said, this change marks a profound shift of the photovoltaic industry from "scale expansion" to "value competition", providing a window for the industry to "counter involution".

II. Intensive Policy Implementation: Three Major Standardizations Reshape the Industry Ecosystem
Starting from March 1, 2026, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in three major standardization reforms, marking a complete end to the chaos of "low-price and inferior products, false power labeling, and shoddy goods":
1. Standardized Grid Connection Management: Red-Yellow-Green Zoning Control
According to the actual carrying capacity of the power grid, national power distribution areas are divided into three levels: green, yellow, and red:
Green zone: Sufficient capacity, immediate application and connection; residential photovoltaic grid connection acceptance completed within 3 working days.
Yellow zone: Moderate capacity; grid connection allowed after power optimization and voltage regulation configuration.
Red zone: Saturated capacity; new access applications temporarily suspended until grid renovation and upgrading.
At the same time, residential photovoltaic filing procedures have been greatly simplified. Natural persons can be represented by power grid enterprises for free filing, eliminating illegal charges by third-party institutions at the source.
2. Standardized Product Quality: Mandatory Efficiency Standards Implemented
Starting from March 1, 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and market supervision authorities will enforce mandatory quality standards for photovoltaic products:
PERC module conversion efficiency not less than 24.2%
TOPCon module conversion efficiency not less than 25%
Products failing to meet the standards are prohibited from production, sales and installation.
The warranty system has also been unified nationwide: product warranty period extended to 30 years, with strict upper limits on power attenuation — no more than 2% in the first year and no more than 0.45% annually thereafter.
3. Standardized Industrial Closed Loop: Mandatory Recycling Policy Implemented
In March 2026, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Comprehensive Utilization of Photovoltaic Modules", and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment simultaneously implemented the "Technical Specifications for Pollution Control in the Recycling and Treatment of Waste Photovoltaic Equipment".
This marks the first establishment of a full-life-cycle closed-loop management system for China's photovoltaic industry, realizing full standardization from production to recycling and filling the long-standing regulatory gap in the industry.

III. Industrial Chain Prices: From "Overshooting" to "Bottoming and Fluctuating"
In the first quarter of 2026, prices in the photovoltaic industrial chain showed a trend of "stabilizing first and then falling".
Polysilicon sector: As of late March, the average spot price of Chinese P-type polysilicon was about 36,000 yuan per ton, and N-type polysilicon about 41,500 yuan per ton. The market remained in a loose supply-demand pattern, with prominent inventory pressure at historical highs.
Wafer sector: Data on March 20 showed the average price of Chinese monocrystalline 183mm N-type wafers was 1.0 yuan per piece. Some small and medium-sized wafer manufacturers adopted low-price shipment strategies to recover funds, further dragging down the market transaction center.
In late 2025, leading wafer companies jointly raised quotations sharply, with 183N wafers quoted at 1.4 yuan per piece, an average increase of 12%. However, entering the first quarter of 2026, the upward momentum of prices was obviously insufficient, and the market returned to rationality.
InfoLink Consulting analyzed that polysilicon inventory reached 570,000-600,000 tons in early 2026, equivalent to about 300-316GW in terms of silicon consumption. Under such a huge inventory, insufficient manufacturer regulation may lead to a "price collapse".
Profits in the industrial chain are being redistributed. Constrained by the terminal "IRR ceiling", the module sector cannot raise prices, and survival pressure is transmitted upstream, making the polysilicon sector a "reservoir" and "release source" for profit adjustment.

IV. Technology Routes: BC Technology from a "Bonus" to a "Must-Have"
In the first quarter of 2026, a new pattern has emerged in the competition of photovoltaic technology routes: TOPCon dominates the mainstream, BC technology expands against the trend, and HJT focuses on high-end applications.
BC Technology: Double Explosion in Capacity and Output
By the end of 2025, the under-construction and commissioned capacity of BC cells worldwide had reached 88GW. In January and February 2026, monthly BC cell output exceeded 4GW, with an operating rate of nearly 60%, jumping from 5.7% to 10-12% in the industry's cell production scheduling.
Against the backdrop that P-type and even a large number of TOPCon production lines have suspended or reduced production due to overcapacity with operating rates below 30%, BC technology has maintained high operating rates and expanded against the trend. By the end of 2026, the total BC cell capacity is expected to grow to about 150GW.
The cumulative shipment of BC modules from LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar has exceeded 26GW (as of the third quarter of 2025). Amid widespread losses across the industry in 2025, both profitability and cash flow have shown a positive trend thanks to the differentiated competitive advantages of BC products.
TOPCon: Mainstream Position Consolidated but Competition Intensified
Relying on high compatibility with existing production lines and mature mass production processes, TOPCon technology is expected to account for 83% of the global market in 2026, with shipments reaching 652.7GW. Its production cost is stable at about $0.25 per watt, making it the first choice for large-scale ground power stations due to its cost-performance advantage.
However, overcapacity remains severe, with a large number of TOPCon production lines operating at less than 30%, accelerating industry reshuffling.
HJT: A Differentiated Choice for High-Value Scenarios
Although HJT technology accounts for a relatively small market share with an expected shipment of 50.3GW in 2026, it has significant technical advantages: mass production conversion efficiency can reach 24%-26%, higher than TOPCon's 23%-25%, with a low temperature coefficient and almost zero light-induced degradation.
The current manufacturing cost of HJT is about $0.30-$0.35 per watt, 15%-20% higher than TOPCon, with high silver paste consumption and dedicated production line investment as the main cost bottlenecks.

V. Outlook: 2026 May Be the Year of Reversal for the Industrial Chain
A CICC research report pointed out that 2026 may be the year of reversal for the main photovoltaic industrial chain.
Helped by "counter-involution", the main photovoltaic industrial chain gradually bottomed out and even improved in the second half of 2025, but the improvement in financial statements slowed down market-based clearance. Therefore, the continuous promotion of "counter-involution" is imperative, with module price rationalization as the core.
Although demand weakened periodically in 2026, supply-side "counter-involution" and the advantages of leading enterprises will help some companies turn losses into profits in 2026. The increase in energy storage installations will enhance absorption capacity, and photovoltaic demand is expected to recover in the middle and late stages of the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
CITIC Futures predicts that global newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be between 630-650GW in 2026. Traditional major markets such as China, Europe and the United States will remain leading, but newly installed capacity may enter a multi-year plateau; demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East, India and Latin America is expected to maintain rapid growth.

Conclusion
The photovoltaic industry in the first quarter of 2026 is undergoing a profound "coming-of-age ceremony".
The negative growth in installed capacity is not a decline of the industry, but a transformation from "quantity" to "quality"; intensive policy implementation is not a constraint on development, but a standardization from "chaos" to "order"; the fluctuation of industrial chain prices is not a market failure, but a reshuffle from "involution" to "excellence"; the iteration of technical routes is not confusion in routes, but evolution from "homogeneity" to "differentiation".
For practitioners, 2026 may be a difficult year, but it may also be a critical year for shaping the competitive landscape for the next decade. Only enterprises that adapt to standardized trends, embrace technological differentiation, and adhere to long-term value can stand out in this industrial restructuring.

Source: PV Broadcast (Contact us for deletion if any infringement is involved)